Tariffs, Turbulence, and the Barbell Bet

Keir

Welcome back to Zero to Tenbagger. I’m Keir Reynolds, and today we’re going deep on the TokStocks portfolio strategy I rolled out at the beginning of 2025—what I envisioned, what actually played out, and most importantly, what I’ve learned so far. Back in January, I approached this market with a barbell strategy: a 50/50 split between two very different sets of companies. On one side, I focused on fundamentally driven businesses—companies with strong cash flow, clean cap tables, and clear paths to profitability. The thinking here was pretty straightforward: a second Trump term would likely bring pro-business policies, deregulation, and a friendly backdrop for U.S. equities. On the other side? Resource Stocks. Gold. Silver. Uranium. Copper. Coming off a strong 2024, I expected these names to take a bit of a breather if a new “strong dollar” and “fiscal discipline” narrative took hold. I expected friction between Trump and FED and rates to remain much higher than Trump wanted. But—as usual—the market had its own plan.

Keir

Let’s rewind for a moment. Twelve of the portfolio’s stocks were selected for their business fundamentals. I looked for high insider ownership, solid balance sheets, and the potential to benefit from policy tailwinds—especially in a market that seemed poised to reward domestic economic strength. The other twelve were resource plays. Miners. Developers. Explorers. These were names with leverage to real assets and a lot of torque if macro conditions started favoring safety, scarcity, inflation hedging or a lower dollar. This wasn’t about betting on one direction. It was about staying exposed to upside while staying protected from risk. In other words, it was a barbell, not a gamble. And I’m glad I built it that way.

Keir

The first surprise of 2025 came Q1. In March, the new administration announced sweeping tariffs—not just on China, but on imports from the EU, India, Canada, Mexico, and others. The policy was pure chaos. Art of the Deal stuff. The average U.S. tariff rate spiked above 25% before easing slightly. That’s not a tweak. That’s a regime change. Predictably, markets got nervous. The large-cap indices like the S&P 500 dropped quickly for a period. This also dragged down the small and mid-cap names—particularly the ones tied to global supply chains or exposed to rising input costs. The Russell 2000 is now down nearly 1% year-to-date. Not catastrophic, but certainly not the kind of performance you want from your “growth” allocation. Several of the fundamentally solid companies in the TokStocks portfolio hit headwinds. And in most cases, it wasn’t about execution. It was about environment.

Keir

Now let’s talk about the other side of the barbell.Commodities didn’t just hold up. They rallied. Gold closed out the first half of 2025 near $3,300 per ounce—up 26% year-to-date. As of this recording, we’re flirting with $3,350. Silver’s been even hotter, up nearly 28% and recently hitting a 14-year high above $38. Uranium has been weak so far. It cooled slightly from Q1, but the long-term thesis remains intact. Supply remains tight, and demand—especially in the U.S.—is picking up steam on the back of an impending energy crisis. So why the rally? A mix of inflation expectations, global trade uncertainty, and central bank gold buying. And of course, the market’s favorite cocktail: geopolitical risk. Turns out, when the world gets weird, gold gets strong.

Keir

I’ll be honest. I expected a more growth-friendly environment under Trump 2.0. in the first 12 months. A market that would reward small caps, loosen financial conditions, and create a tailwind for companies with real earnings. Instead, we got tariffs, uncertainty, and no meaningful fiscal restraint. The result? Safety and scarcity outperformed speculation. And that’s the key takeaway here. Markets don’t move on slogans. They move on policy.

Keir

This is where the barbell strategy really proved its worth. I didn’t go all-in on fundamentals. I didn’t go all-in on gold. I positioned for flexibility. Let’s not kid ourselves—tariffs weren’t some shocking development. Trump campaigned on them. The only surprise was how fast and how broadly they were implemented or threatened. It's still a full-time job trying to determine which tariffs are still just threats and which have actually taken hold. And the idea of real fiscal discipline? That’s like expecting a salad bar at a Texas Barbecue joint. Sure, the Department of Government Efficiency—or DOGE—got some headlines with its launch. And yes, it was supposed to be able to cut upwards of a trillion dollars but it's struggled to find more than $160 billion in spending cuts so far. The even harder part has been to get the politicians to actually move forward with these cuts. But let’s be honest: when a government office has the same name as a meme coin, maybe don’t take the savings projections too seriously. The takeaway? Washington doesn’t cut spending. It reallocates headlines. And that’s why we stayed diversified.

Keir

Here’s the mid-year scorecard. The resource names have been the standouts. Junior gold miners are up 40 to 120%. Silver plays with tight share structures are breaking out. Uranium names are holding ground and may still shine in the second half - new catalyst depending. The fundamentals side? Slower. But not broken. In fact, some of the most compelling opportunities right now are sitting in that bucket, trading below where they started the year—but with no change to the underlying business case. Looking forward, here’s what I’m watching: U.S.-based gold miners with near-term M&A potential. Silver developers with exposure to industrial trends. Uranium equities ahead of key policy updates this fall. Domestic growth companies with zero debt, clean structures, and insider buying. Because once the tariff noise settles and volatility cools, quality will likely matter again.

Keir

So where does that leave us? This year has reinforced something I’ve learned again and again: the market always surprises and it's vital to hedge for other outcomes. The TokStocks barbell strategy gave us room to maneuver. It wasn’t about conviction. It was about balance. It was about uncertainty. Needing time for things to play out under a new US administration and for global finance to recalibrate. If you’re getting value from Zero to Tenbagger, hit that subscribe button, leave a review, and share this episode with someone who still thinks “fiscal responsibility” means anything on Capitol Hill. Until next time—stay skeptical, stay sharp, and remember: Price follows narrative. But narrative follows surprise.